Zgryźliwość kojarzy mi się z radością, która źle skończyła.
Chapter 13
A Composite Reconstruction of the Russian
Arctic Climate Back to A.D. 1435
Vladimir V. Klimenko
During the last 100 years our planet apparently is passing through the fastest and
the most significant warming in the history of civilization. Orthodox climatology
and, in particular, that part of it, which prefers to base its conclusions on the data
of numerical modeling, states that global warming is to increase significantly in the
polar regions. In particular, one of the principal modern instruments for climate
studying – general circulation models (GCMs) – states that the maximal tempera-
ture increase is to happen in autumn above water area of the Arctic Ocean
(Kondratiev
2004
; Pfeifer and Jacob
2005)
. However, basing on more than 100
year record of meteorological observations in high latitudes, one can state now that
nowhere in the world the theory is so much far from the reality as it is in the Arctic
(hereafter under this term we mean the Eurasian coast of Arctic Ocean between
Norway and Chukotka). The Arctic is a real climatic paradox, as the most detailed
data of observations taken within the last 50 years shows no significant warming
until the beginning of the present century; and now, where it nevertheless happens,
major temperature increase occurs in winter and spring, but not in autumn seasons
(Przybylak
2000
; Klimenko et al.
2001)
.
In this connection, data about Arctic climate fluctuations in the historical past,
which may facilitate formation of more correct understanding of possible reasons
and scales of changes in the past and in future, attracts high interest.
Due to considerations expressed the Global Energy Problems Laboratory
(GEPL) of the Moscow Energy Institute (MEI) in collaboration with the Seminar
of East European History of the Rhine University (Bonn, Germany) in 2002–2006
conducted a study of documentary evidence about climate condition in the basin of
the Barents and Kara Seas as well as on the adjacent territory of the north-east of
the European part of Russia and the western Siberia in the sixteenth to twentieth
centuries. The map of the study region and neighbouring Arctic areas with the most
V.V. Klimenko
Rhine Friedrich Wilhelm University, Bonn, Germany
Global Energy Problems Laboratory, Moscow Energy Institute,
14 Krasnokazarmennaya Street, 111250 Moscow, Russia
R. Przybylak et al. (eds.),
The Polish Climate in the European Context:
An Historical Overview
, DOI 10.1007/978-90-481-3167-9_13,
© Springer Science + Business Media B.V. 2010
295
296
V.V. Klimenko
important meteorological stations, each of which has at least 120 years of observational
record, is given in Fig.
13.1
. On the same figure the locations are indicated, for
which detailed palaeoclimatic reconstructions are available, which are performed
by dendroclimatic methods (Briffa et al.
1992
; Earle et al.
1994
; Mac Donald et al.
1998
; Gervais and Mac Donald
2000
; Kirchhefer
2001
; Hantemirov and Shiyatov
2002
; Naurzbaev et al.
2002)
. The box indicates region boundaries in the basin of
the Barents and Kara Seas (BKS), for which in the present work a reconstruction
of mean annual air temperatures (and hereafter the term “temperature” refers to the
annual one if not stated otherwise) is developed.
In this work we tried to introduce in a scientific circulation either little-known, or
unpublished before in Russian, or unpublished at all evidence of the European and
Russian navigators, travellers and researchers, who have visited the basin of the Barents
and Kara Seas. In total we gathered about 3,000 pieces of documentary evidence, con-
taining this or that climatic and natural history information – a full collection of this
evidence and origin sources are presented elsewhere (Klimenko and Astrina
2006
;
Astrina
2007)
. Unfortunately, we have to admit that the volume and density of the
information received in the separate time intervals (especially it concerns the fifteenth
and the first half of the seventeenth centuries) is not sufficient in order to perform a
correct quantitative palaeoclimatic reconstruction on its basis. That’s why for such a
reconstruction a decision had been taken to combine historical-climatic research results
with the data of numerical modelling of BKS region climate (region I in Fig.
13.1
),
recently undertaken in our work (Klimenko and Mikushina
2005)
.
Simulations were carried out with a regressive-analytical climate model, devel-
oped in the GEPL of the MEI (Klimenko et al.
1997
; Klimenko and Mikushina
2005)
. This model gives an opportunity to calculate variations of annual average
and seasonal average temperatures depending on changes of main climatic factors,
information of which one can find in Table
13.1
.
To investigate the relationship between regional temperatures and natural climate
factors the multiple linear regression model was used. Its coefficients were calculated
by the least square method from the smoothed instrumental data for the period
1863–2006. The estimation of the anthropogenic sensitivity of BKS region tempera-
ture to the forcing of greenhouse gases and aerosols was implemented in studies of
climate variations through 1889–2004 (Klimenko and Mikushina
2005)
. The result-
ing temperature trend of the regressive-analytical climate model was determined by
the joint influence of anthropogenic and natural factors with the significant role of the
latter. The resulting trend is statistically significant on the 95% level, multiple deter-
mination coefficient is 0.51. It is completely consistent with the picture of the histori-
cal climate data, reconstructed on the basis of the documentary evidence of
1499–1911. Simulation results are shown in the Fig.
13.2
together with the data of
instrumental observations. A final version of annual average temperatures reconstruc-
tion together with the data of instrumental observations and forecast until the end of
this century are shown in Fig.
13.2
. The produced reconstruction demonstrates that
during the past six centuries climate of the studied Arctic sector experienced signifi-
cant fluctuations which by both their scales and rate match those which were detected
by the instrumental observations during the twentieth century. In particular, significant and
13 A Composite Reconstruction of the Russian Arctic Climate Back to A.D. 1435
297
Fig. 13.1
The Russian Arctic and boundaries of a study area (I). Location of long-term meteoro-
logical stations: (1) Haparanda; (2) Vardø; (3) Arkhangelsk; (4) Kem; (5) Petrozavodsk; (6) Malye
Karmakuly; (7) Salehard; (8) Tobolsk; (9) Syktyvkar; (10) Turuhansk; (11) Tomsk; (12)
Yeniseysk. Location of tree-ring chronologies: (13) northern Norway; (14) Torneträsk Lake; (15)
Kola Peninsula; (16) Southern Yamal; (17) eastern Taymyr; (18) the Lower Lena River; (19) the
Upper Kolyma River
well-known Arctic warming, which took place in the 1920–1940s, apparently, was not
unique – similar in scale warmings took place in the nineteenth century as well as in
the late eighteenth century, and some weaker ones – at the beginning of the eigh-
teenth and in seventeenth centuries, as well as in the first part of sixteenth century.
The most significant cooling took place in the mid-fifteenth century, end of the six-
teenth century, second half of the seventeenth century, early and late nineteenth cen-
tury. All these prominent climatic events have quite a definite confirmation in our
collection of a comprehensive documentary evidence. A greater part of this evidence
has never been considered in a climatic context, that’s why we think it’s appropriate
to demonstrate at least a part of it here.
298
V.V. Klimenko
Table 13.1
Major climatic factors
,
relevant variables and information
Climate forming factors
Variables, expressing climate
forming factors influence
Source
Concentration of greenhouse
gases of the atmosphere
(carbon dioxide,
methane, nitrous oxide,
ozone, freons, etc.)
and concentrations of
troposphere aerosols
(sulphate aerosols of
anthropogenic origin
mainly)
Total forcing of greenhouse
gases and troposphere
sulphate aerosol
Klimenko et al.
(2000)
Volcanic activity (concentration
of stratosphere, mainly
sulphate, aerosol)
Acidity index $$ AI_c^N $$
for Northern hemisphere
Klimenko et al.
(1997)
;
Hammer et al. (1980)
Solar activity
Maximal Wolf numbers, i.e.
maximal average annual
values in each Schwabe
cycle
Mikushina et al. (1997)
The Earth rotation velocity
(Rot)
Average annual fluctuations of
the Earth’s day length from
atomic day length DT
1790–present –
Sidorenkov
(2002)
;
1429–1790 –
extrapolation by
trigonometric trend
with the principal
period of 79 years
North Atlantic Oscillation
winter index (NAOI)
Difference of normalized
sea level pressures DP
according to data from
Lisbon station (Portugal)
and Stykkisholmur station
(Iceland)
1864–present Hurrell
(1995); 1823–1863
Jones et al.(1997);
1429–1822 Glueck
and Stockton (2001)
One hundred years before the first West European navigators arrival, the Russian
North was a large deserted area, being under the formal control of Velikyi Novgorod.
The main impulse, which caused people from Novgorod to come to the Far North, till
the very shore of the “Cold Sea” (name of the Barents Sea up to the nineteenth cen-
tury), was a search of goods for Novgorod market, furs in the first turn. People from
Novgorod descended to the sea by rivers and portages and travelled by boats (“ush-
kuyas”) along the sea shore, arranging temporary settlements, and were involved in
plundering at convenient moments. At this, local population robbery was covered by
the slogan of christening of “savage Lapps”, “Karelia children” and “bloody
Samoeds”. To Belomorye and Murman, in Pechora and Yugra not only hunters came,
but also soldiers for tributing or just plundering. Local population often resisted to
this brigandage of Novgorod “boyar children and varmint people”, and bloodshed
resistance battles not always finished in favor of Russian violators. However, not just
a persistent resistance of the local population, but also extremely hard natural condi-
tions of the North facilitated those facts that until the collapse of Velikiy Novgorod
13 A Composite Reconstruction of the Russian Arctic Climate Back to A.D. 1435
299
Fig. 13.2
Mean-annual temperature record (smoothed 10-year values) in the Barents and the
Kara Seas basin since A.D. 1435. (1) Instrumental observations; (2) Reconstructed temperature
(with reference to the period 1951–1980)
(1478) actual colonization of the seashores by Russians didn’t start. In the mid-fifteenth
century, except several small settlements in the lower reaches of the Severnaya
Dvina, Onega and Varzuga rivers, the only permanent settlement, situated directly at
the seashore, was Solovetskiy Monastery, founded in 1435.
Together with Novgorod collapse the way to Yugra ( the lower Ob’ River) fell
completely into Moscow’s hands, but only in 1499 in the mouth of Pechora River
near Pustoe Lake, a famous Pustozersky fortification was built (“stockaded town
was built in the tundra place, cold and forestless”). It was the first step made by
Russians to the Arctic Ocean shores. We think it wasn’t accidentally that Pustozersk
was founded at the time of a short Arctic warming, when its climate suddenly
became warmer and approached the modern one (hereafter the “modern climate”
refers to the average temperatures observed in 1951–1980) by its characteristics
(see Fig.
13.2
). Having reached the Arctic Ocean shore, Russians, naturally, couldn’t
resist navigation – for trading aims as well as for fishing and whaling. Possibly at
this very time some unknown Russian navigators discovered Novaya Zemlya – an
exact date of this event is still unknown, however there is a very important evidence,
pointing exactly the boundary between the fifteenth and sixteenth centuries. Italian
writer Mauro Urbino in his book, published in 1610, writes the following: “Russians,
sailing in the northern sea, discovered about 107 years ago an unknown island,
inhabited by Slavs and subjected to eternal cold. It is bigger than Cyprus island and
on the maps it is indicated as Novaya Zemlya” (Vise
1934)
.
Colonization of Kola Peninsula by Russians began undoubtedly later, and its first
visible sign also coincided with a new phase of warming in the Arctic, which lasted
this time for more than 30 years, since the middle of the 1530s to the early 1570s.
zanotowane.pl doc.pisz.pl pdf.pisz.pl hannaeva.xlx.pl
A Composite Reconstruction of the Russian
Arctic Climate Back to A.D. 1435
Vladimir V. Klimenko
During the last 100 years our planet apparently is passing through the fastest and
the most significant warming in the history of civilization. Orthodox climatology
and, in particular, that part of it, which prefers to base its conclusions on the data
of numerical modeling, states that global warming is to increase significantly in the
polar regions. In particular, one of the principal modern instruments for climate
studying – general circulation models (GCMs) – states that the maximal tempera-
ture increase is to happen in autumn above water area of the Arctic Ocean
(Kondratiev
2004
; Pfeifer and Jacob
2005)
. However, basing on more than 100
year record of meteorological observations in high latitudes, one can state now that
nowhere in the world the theory is so much far from the reality as it is in the Arctic
(hereafter under this term we mean the Eurasian coast of Arctic Ocean between
Norway and Chukotka). The Arctic is a real climatic paradox, as the most detailed
data of observations taken within the last 50 years shows no significant warming
until the beginning of the present century; and now, where it nevertheless happens,
major temperature increase occurs in winter and spring, but not in autumn seasons
(Przybylak
2000
; Klimenko et al.
2001)
.
In this connection, data about Arctic climate fluctuations in the historical past,
which may facilitate formation of more correct understanding of possible reasons
and scales of changes in the past and in future, attracts high interest.
Due to considerations expressed the Global Energy Problems Laboratory
(GEPL) of the Moscow Energy Institute (MEI) in collaboration with the Seminar
of East European History of the Rhine University (Bonn, Germany) in 2002–2006
conducted a study of documentary evidence about climate condition in the basin of
the Barents and Kara Seas as well as on the adjacent territory of the north-east of
the European part of Russia and the western Siberia in the sixteenth to twentieth
centuries. The map of the study region and neighbouring Arctic areas with the most
V.V. Klimenko
Rhine Friedrich Wilhelm University, Bonn, Germany
Global Energy Problems Laboratory, Moscow Energy Institute,
14 Krasnokazarmennaya Street, 111250 Moscow, Russia
R. Przybylak et al. (eds.),
The Polish Climate in the European Context:
An Historical Overview
, DOI 10.1007/978-90-481-3167-9_13,
© Springer Science + Business Media B.V. 2010
295
296
V.V. Klimenko
important meteorological stations, each of which has at least 120 years of observational
record, is given in Fig.
13.1
. On the same figure the locations are indicated, for
which detailed palaeoclimatic reconstructions are available, which are performed
by dendroclimatic methods (Briffa et al.
1992
; Earle et al.
1994
; Mac Donald et al.
1998
; Gervais and Mac Donald
2000
; Kirchhefer
2001
; Hantemirov and Shiyatov
2002
; Naurzbaev et al.
2002)
. The box indicates region boundaries in the basin of
the Barents and Kara Seas (BKS), for which in the present work a reconstruction
of mean annual air temperatures (and hereafter the term “temperature” refers to the
annual one if not stated otherwise) is developed.
In this work we tried to introduce in a scientific circulation either little-known, or
unpublished before in Russian, or unpublished at all evidence of the European and
Russian navigators, travellers and researchers, who have visited the basin of the Barents
and Kara Seas. In total we gathered about 3,000 pieces of documentary evidence, con-
taining this or that climatic and natural history information – a full collection of this
evidence and origin sources are presented elsewhere (Klimenko and Astrina
2006
;
Astrina
2007)
. Unfortunately, we have to admit that the volume and density of the
information received in the separate time intervals (especially it concerns the fifteenth
and the first half of the seventeenth centuries) is not sufficient in order to perform a
correct quantitative palaeoclimatic reconstruction on its basis. That’s why for such a
reconstruction a decision had been taken to combine historical-climatic research results
with the data of numerical modelling of BKS region climate (region I in Fig.
13.1
),
recently undertaken in our work (Klimenko and Mikushina
2005)
.
Simulations were carried out with a regressive-analytical climate model, devel-
oped in the GEPL of the MEI (Klimenko et al.
1997
; Klimenko and Mikushina
2005)
. This model gives an opportunity to calculate variations of annual average
and seasonal average temperatures depending on changes of main climatic factors,
information of which one can find in Table
13.1
.
To investigate the relationship between regional temperatures and natural climate
factors the multiple linear regression model was used. Its coefficients were calculated
by the least square method from the smoothed instrumental data for the period
1863–2006. The estimation of the anthropogenic sensitivity of BKS region tempera-
ture to the forcing of greenhouse gases and aerosols was implemented in studies of
climate variations through 1889–2004 (Klimenko and Mikushina
2005)
. The result-
ing temperature trend of the regressive-analytical climate model was determined by
the joint influence of anthropogenic and natural factors with the significant role of the
latter. The resulting trend is statistically significant on the 95% level, multiple deter-
mination coefficient is 0.51. It is completely consistent with the picture of the histori-
cal climate data, reconstructed on the basis of the documentary evidence of
1499–1911. Simulation results are shown in the Fig.
13.2
together with the data of
instrumental observations. A final version of annual average temperatures reconstruc-
tion together with the data of instrumental observations and forecast until the end of
this century are shown in Fig.
13.2
. The produced reconstruction demonstrates that
during the past six centuries climate of the studied Arctic sector experienced signifi-
cant fluctuations which by both their scales and rate match those which were detected
by the instrumental observations during the twentieth century. In particular, significant and
13 A Composite Reconstruction of the Russian Arctic Climate Back to A.D. 1435
297
Fig. 13.1
The Russian Arctic and boundaries of a study area (I). Location of long-term meteoro-
logical stations: (1) Haparanda; (2) Vardø; (3) Arkhangelsk; (4) Kem; (5) Petrozavodsk; (6) Malye
Karmakuly; (7) Salehard; (8) Tobolsk; (9) Syktyvkar; (10) Turuhansk; (11) Tomsk; (12)
Yeniseysk. Location of tree-ring chronologies: (13) northern Norway; (14) Torneträsk Lake; (15)
Kola Peninsula; (16) Southern Yamal; (17) eastern Taymyr; (18) the Lower Lena River; (19) the
Upper Kolyma River
well-known Arctic warming, which took place in the 1920–1940s, apparently, was not
unique – similar in scale warmings took place in the nineteenth century as well as in
the late eighteenth century, and some weaker ones – at the beginning of the eigh-
teenth and in seventeenth centuries, as well as in the first part of sixteenth century.
The most significant cooling took place in the mid-fifteenth century, end of the six-
teenth century, second half of the seventeenth century, early and late nineteenth cen-
tury. All these prominent climatic events have quite a definite confirmation in our
collection of a comprehensive documentary evidence. A greater part of this evidence
has never been considered in a climatic context, that’s why we think it’s appropriate
to demonstrate at least a part of it here.
298
V.V. Klimenko
Table 13.1
Major climatic factors
,
relevant variables and information
Climate forming factors
Variables, expressing climate
forming factors influence
Source
Concentration of greenhouse
gases of the atmosphere
(carbon dioxide,
methane, nitrous oxide,
ozone, freons, etc.)
and concentrations of
troposphere aerosols
(sulphate aerosols of
anthropogenic origin
mainly)
Total forcing of greenhouse
gases and troposphere
sulphate aerosol
Klimenko et al.
(2000)
Volcanic activity (concentration
of stratosphere, mainly
sulphate, aerosol)
Acidity index $$ AI_c^N $$
for Northern hemisphere
Klimenko et al.
(1997)
;
Hammer et al. (1980)
Solar activity
Maximal Wolf numbers, i.e.
maximal average annual
values in each Schwabe
cycle
Mikushina et al. (1997)
The Earth rotation velocity
(Rot)
Average annual fluctuations of
the Earth’s day length from
atomic day length DT
1790–present –
Sidorenkov
(2002)
;
1429–1790 –
extrapolation by
trigonometric trend
with the principal
period of 79 years
North Atlantic Oscillation
winter index (NAOI)
Difference of normalized
sea level pressures DP
according to data from
Lisbon station (Portugal)
and Stykkisholmur station
(Iceland)
1864–present Hurrell
(1995); 1823–1863
Jones et al.(1997);
1429–1822 Glueck
and Stockton (2001)
One hundred years before the first West European navigators arrival, the Russian
North was a large deserted area, being under the formal control of Velikyi Novgorod.
The main impulse, which caused people from Novgorod to come to the Far North, till
the very shore of the “Cold Sea” (name of the Barents Sea up to the nineteenth cen-
tury), was a search of goods for Novgorod market, furs in the first turn. People from
Novgorod descended to the sea by rivers and portages and travelled by boats (“ush-
kuyas”) along the sea shore, arranging temporary settlements, and were involved in
plundering at convenient moments. At this, local population robbery was covered by
the slogan of christening of “savage Lapps”, “Karelia children” and “bloody
Samoeds”. To Belomorye and Murman, in Pechora and Yugra not only hunters came,
but also soldiers for tributing or just plundering. Local population often resisted to
this brigandage of Novgorod “boyar children and varmint people”, and bloodshed
resistance battles not always finished in favor of Russian violators. However, not just
a persistent resistance of the local population, but also extremely hard natural condi-
tions of the North facilitated those facts that until the collapse of Velikiy Novgorod
13 A Composite Reconstruction of the Russian Arctic Climate Back to A.D. 1435
299
Fig. 13.2
Mean-annual temperature record (smoothed 10-year values) in the Barents and the
Kara Seas basin since A.D. 1435. (1) Instrumental observations; (2) Reconstructed temperature
(with reference to the period 1951–1980)
(1478) actual colonization of the seashores by Russians didn’t start. In the mid-fifteenth
century, except several small settlements in the lower reaches of the Severnaya
Dvina, Onega and Varzuga rivers, the only permanent settlement, situated directly at
the seashore, was Solovetskiy Monastery, founded in 1435.
Together with Novgorod collapse the way to Yugra ( the lower Ob’ River) fell
completely into Moscow’s hands, but only in 1499 in the mouth of Pechora River
near Pustoe Lake, a famous Pustozersky fortification was built (“stockaded town
was built in the tundra place, cold and forestless”). It was the first step made by
Russians to the Arctic Ocean shores. We think it wasn’t accidentally that Pustozersk
was founded at the time of a short Arctic warming, when its climate suddenly
became warmer and approached the modern one (hereafter the “modern climate”
refers to the average temperatures observed in 1951–1980) by its characteristics
(see Fig.
13.2
). Having reached the Arctic Ocean shore, Russians, naturally, couldn’t
resist navigation – for trading aims as well as for fishing and whaling. Possibly at
this very time some unknown Russian navigators discovered Novaya Zemlya – an
exact date of this event is still unknown, however there is a very important evidence,
pointing exactly the boundary between the fifteenth and sixteenth centuries. Italian
writer Mauro Urbino in his book, published in 1610, writes the following: “Russians,
sailing in the northern sea, discovered about 107 years ago an unknown island,
inhabited by Slavs and subjected to eternal cold. It is bigger than Cyprus island and
on the maps it is indicated as Novaya Zemlya” (Vise
1934)
.
Colonization of Kola Peninsula by Russians began undoubtedly later, and its first
visible sign also coincided with a new phase of warming in the Arctic, which lasted
this time for more than 30 years, since the middle of the 1530s to the early 1570s.